Establishment data — what opens, what closes, how the category mix shifts — is a leading indicator. It moves 6–18 months before listing prices reflect what's happening on the ground.
Region 15 added 791 new establishments since July 2025 with only 8 permanent closures — the lowest churn of any growth zone. Sophistication scores rising, listing prices haven't reflected the inflow yet.
Buyer entry window still open. Realtors with mandates: source dealflow here before the shake-out signal arrives.
Aldea Zama is past the easy-growth phase. Still adding inventory fast, but specialty F&B (SOUK Kitchen, Bella Roma, Tulum Tacos) and short-stay rentals are closing. The 20-35% price run from 2022 has cooled into a 10-15% condo correction.
Sellers: list now. Buyers: prices catching up to fundamentals — the discount window is narrowing.
Centro's F&B layer is shaking out hard — 62 restaurants permanently closed this cycle, the highest of any zone. Selina Tulum Downtown's chain-hostel pullout is the marquee signal: post-2023 oversupply unwinding.
Operators: niche or specialty F&B only. Investors: yield play, not appreciation. Underwriters: price the volatility.
Each emerging zone today resembles a more-developed zone's past. These trajectory pairs are the strongest forward-looking signal we publish: if the comparable's path holds, the target zone follows.
Every Tulum zone we track, ranked by composition score. Click any zone for the full breakdown.
30-day trajectory of composition, sophistication, review acceleration, and net openings.
What's exiting — the inverse signal of new openings. Permanent closures concentrated in a category tell you where capital is rotating out.