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Region 15

region-15
2 snapshots · latest May 5, 2026
Developing

Region 15 is the cleanest growth story in Tulum — 1,111 establishments grown from 320 baseline (+791 net-new), only 8 permanent closures (0.71% rate, the lowest of any growth zone). Sophistication 80.6. Composition fingerprint matches Aldea Zama RIGHT NOW (99.7% similar) — meaning Region 15 has reached Aldea Zama's mix without yet pricing it in.

60.6
Composition score
1,111
Establishments
11% first-wave
0.71%
Closure rate
8 permanent
Pioneer
Emerging
Developing
Established
Sophistication and density elevated. Repricing visible.

This zone's trajectory

The strongest historical comparable in our dataset. When the matched snapshot is older, the comparable's path projects Region 15's likely direction.

Trajectory match · 99.7% similar
Region 15 todayAldea Zama today
Region 15 todaycomp 60.6
Aldea Zama · May 2026comp 67.9

What this means for you

How Region 15's current state translates into a position for each stakeholder. Decision anchors grounded in the zone's data + Tulum market context — not financial advice.

Buyer
Strongest forward-looking signal in Tulum. Aldea-Zama-quality mix without Aldea-Zama prices. Close fast on identified deals — the 99.7% match means the gap closes within 12 months.
Realtor (buy-side)
Source dealflow here aggressively. The 8-vs-99-Centro closure ratio means risk-adjusted returns are highest in Region 15 right now. Mandate-fit for buyers seeking "next Aldea Zama."
Developer
Acquisition window open but narrowing. Prices haven't caught the Aldea-Zama match signal yet — that gap closes within 12 months. Decide on land within 2 quarters.
Investor
Highest growth-quality combination available. Pre-inflection pricing, mature category mix. Watch for the first +10% list-price quarter — that's the inflection event.

What's here

747
Hospitality
165
Other
69
Wellness & Retreat
49
Real Estate & Development
37
Food & Beverage
17
Cowork & Creative

Churn & closures

What's exiting the zone, and the rate at which capital is rotating out — the inverse signal of new openings.

Churn signal
0.71%
permanent closure rate
8
permanent
13
temporary
What's exiting
Hospitality
5
Food & Beverage
1
Services & Professional
1
Recent closures
PERMFocus TulumHospitality
PERMRefugio Tulum, BrunchFood & Beverage
TEMPThe Garden RestoranFood & Beverage
TEMPLos Morros Tulum PadelFood & Beverage
TEMPBalaxeFood & Beverage
TEMPDliciousFood & Beverage
PERMDasSatil Rentas de Autos y ScooterServices & Professional
TEMPCasa BuhoOther

Velocity

+0.18
Composition / 30d
+0.66
Sophistication / 30d
-0.45
Review accel.
+77.30
Net openings / 30d
Methodology & detail↓ expand

Score breakdown

Sophistication30%
80.6
Weighted establishment-tier score. Yoga and galleries score high; banks and gas stations score low.
Diversity25%
41.6
Shannon index across category mix. High = balanced; low = monoculture.
Density20%
81.8
Establishments per km², log-scaled. Captures urban concentration.
Review depth25%
38.8
Avg reviews per establishment, log-scaled. Proxy for market attention. Becomes review velocity once we have multiple snapshots.

Composition fingerprint

Hospitality
67.2%
Other
14.9%
Wellness & Retreat
6.2%
Real Estate & Development
4.4%
Food & Beverage
3.3%
Cowork & Creative
1.5%
Services & Professional
1.2%
Health & Fitness
0.7%
Retail & Shopping
0.5%
Art & Culture
0.1%

Cohorts by month of arrival

Cohort
Count
Mean rating
Mean reviews
First-wave
Mean tier
2025-07
312
4.58
32
11%
2.96
2026-05
799
4.66
43
11%
3.33