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Centro

centro
2 snapshots · latest May 5, 2026
Established

Centro is shaking out hard — 99 permanent closures this cycle (62 of them F&B), the highest churn rate of any major zone at 4.76%. Selina Tulum Downtown's closure is the marquee signal: the chain-hostel pullout from a 1,983-establishment market means the post-2023 oversupply is unwinding. Sophistication score 67 trails other Established zones, reflecting the local-serving + tourist mix unique to Centro.

71.5
Composition score
1,983
Establishments
12% first-wave
4.76%
Closure rate
99 permanent
Pioneer
Emerging
Developing
Established
Mature gentrification. Yield play, not appreciation play.

This zone's trajectory

The strongest historical comparable in our dataset. When the matched snapshot is older, the comparable's path projects Centro's likely direction.

Trajectory match · 97.5% similar
Centro todayParque del Jaguar 10 months ago
Centro todaycomp 71.5
Parque del Jaguar · Jul 2025comp 70.8

What this means for you

How Centro's current state translates into a position for each stakeholder. Decision anchors grounded in the zone's data + Tulum market context — not financial advice.

Operator
Niche, specialty, or experiential F&B only. The 62 F&B closures rate Centro's restaurant supply 12-15% over absorption — generic taquerías and coffee shops are the closure category.
Investor
Yield play with volatility. Cap rates won't compress further; income vehicles work, growth funds should look elsewhere. Price the 4.76% churn into pro-formas.
Underwriter
Price the volatility. Tenant turnover at 4.76% means standard 1-year leases carry real risk. Require 2+ year terms or stronger guarantees for F&B; hospitality is more stable.
Buyer
Mature-market prices, mature-market product. Income generation or genuine lifestyle yes; appreciation upside limited absent a Maya Train station catalyst.

What's here

635
Food & Beverage
580
Hospitality
209
Services & Professional
150
Other
138
Retail & Shopping
88
Wellness & Retreat

Churn & closures

What's exiting the zone, and the rate at which capital is rotating out — the inverse signal of new openings.

Churn signal
4.76%
permanent closure rate
99
permanent
78
temporary
What's exiting
Food & Beverage
62
Services & Professional
14
Hospitality
8
Recent closures
PERMCasa del ÁrbolHospitality
PERMSelina Tulum DowntownHospitality
PERMHotel AmansalaHospitality
TEMPAldeaTulumReal Estate & Development
PERMAldea TulumServices & Professional
TEMPAldea Tzunun HostelHospitality
PERMCarServices & Professional
PERMSky Sport BarFood & Beverage

Velocity

+0.13
Composition / 30d
+0.22
Sophistication / 30d
-0.23
Review accel.
+64.59
Net openings / 30d
Methodology & detail↓ expand

Score breakdown

Sophistication30%
67.0
Weighted establishment-tier score. Yoga and galleries score high; banks and gas stations score low.
Diversity25%
66.3
Shannon index across category mix. High = balanced; low = monoculture.
Density20%
88.3
Establishments per km², log-scaled. Captures urban concentration.
Review depth25%
68.6
Avg reviews per establishment, log-scaled. Proxy for market attention. Becomes review velocity once we have multiple snapshots.

Composition fingerprint

Food & Beverage
32.0%
Hospitality
29.2%
Services & Professional
10.5%
Other
7.6%
Retail & Shopping
7.0%
Wellness & Retreat
4.4%
Health & Fitness
4.0%
Real Estate & Development
2.2%
Art & Culture
1.2%
Nightlife & Entertainment
0.8%
Cowork & Creative
0.7%
Spiritual & Ceremonial
0.3%
Public & Institutional
0.1%

Cohorts by month of arrival

Cohort
Count
Mean rating
Mean reviews
First-wave
Mean tier
2025-07
1232
4.44
190
12%
2.60
2026-05
751
4.48
58
14%
2.82